Methodology

See our updated White Paper -- 4/8/2020

This mapping tool highlights potential impact of family medicine physicians closing practices related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential causes of attrition include loss of revenue, drastic reduction in hours and staff, and reassignment of physicians to hospital-based COVID-19 care.

The data for the "Coronavirus Pandemic-Related Potential Family Medicine Office Closures and Economic Impact, April through June 2020" tool were derived from the National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES), the American Medical Association (AMA) Physician Economic Impact Study and the Robert Graham Center Social Deprivation Index (SDI).

The starting number for number of Family Physicians comes from the February 2020 NPPES including all Family Medicine topologies:

   207Q00000X -- Family Medicine (General)
   207QA0401X -- Family Medicine: Addiction Medicine
   207QA0000X -- Family Medicine: Adolescent Medicine
   207QA0505X -- Family Medicine: Adult Medicine
   207QB0002X -- Family Medicine: Bariatric Medicine
   207QG0300X -- Family Medicine: Geriatric Medicine
   207QH0002X -- Family Medicine: Hospice and Palliative Medicine
   207QS1201X -- Family Medicine: Sleep Medicine
   207QS0010X -- Family Medicine: Sports Medicine

The starting numbers for number of jobs supported by the physician and the amount of wages and salaries comes from the AMA Physician Economic Impact Study. State-by-state reports are available online, for example, the Ohio report (https://www.physicianseconomicimpact.org/pdf/FullStateReports/OH-Study.pdf). We used Table 3 in each of the state reports to calculate the ratio of the number of jobs per family medicine physician and the ratio of wages and salaries per family medicine physician. These ratios were then applied to counts of family medicine physicians from the NPPES and summed to get estimated Jobs and Wages & Salaries numbers.

The model assumes three to four percent attrition (loss) of individual Family Medicine physicians each week. In the model, each county loses a minimum of three percent of its physicians per week. Then an additional percentage is added (allowed for additional attrition) based on SDI scores which range from 0 to 100 where 0 has the lowest social and economic deprivation and 100 has the highest. No additional attrition above the 3% is included for counties that have an SDI score of 0 and then moving up the scale to an SDI score of 100 where we find the potential maximum level of 4% attrition. In between on the scale, counties with an SDI score of 43 saw total attrition of 3.43% and those with an SDI score of 65 saw total attrition of 3.65%, as examples. SDI is included because populations with higher SDI scores may have higher community risk.

About HealthLandscape

HealthLandscape is an interactive web-based mapping tool that allows health professionals, policy makers, academic researchers, and planners to combine, analyze and display information in ways that promote better understanding of health and the forces that affect it. The tool brings together various sources of health, socio-economic and environmental information in a convenient, central location to help answer questions about and improve health and healthcare. HealthLandscape can be used to create maps from publicly available data sets including regional criminal justice, education, healthcare, and demographic data, allowing users to discover community characteristics and share information with health professionals, policy makers, and legislators.

HealthLandscape develops, administers, and markets geospatial analysis software tools and professional services. HealthLandscape is a division of the American Academy of Family Physicians. HealthLandscape has extensive experience in GIS applications relating to health centers and primary care and works closely on all projects as a team.